A $105 cut to a price target usually means an analyst has given up on a stock. This one is different, and that is exactly why it caught my eye this week.
Ben Reitzes, who carries a five-star ranking on TipRanks, lowered his Nvidia target by 25% and then, in the same note, told investors to keep buying. On paper that looks contradictory. Once you read why he did it, it starts to make uncomfortable sense.
What exactly did the analyst change on Nvidia?
On November 2, Reitzes moved his 12-month target on Nvidia from $420 down to $315, as first reported by TheFly and picked up by TheStreet. Nvidia closed at $206.69 on November 3, so even the lower figure points to roughly 52% upside. The stock is also sitting about 15% below its October high.
The $315 number now lands close to the Wall Street average of around $327. Bernstein is still higher at $400, and Evercore sits at $465. So Reitzes has moved from the optimistic end of the pack to roughly the middle.
| Source | Rating / Target | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Melius Research (Ben Reitzes) | Buy / $315 | Cut from $420 on Nov 2 |
| Wall Street consensus | About $327 | Average across analysts |
| Bernstein | $400 | Among the higher targets |
| Evercore | $465 | Highest figure cited |
| NVDA close, Nov 3 | $206.69 | About 15% below October high |
Why did Intel’s crash matter for Nvidia?
On October 30, Intel dropped about 29% after earnings, its worst single day in roughly fifty years according to CNBC’s coverage. What makes that odd is that the quarter itself wasn’t bad. Revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, and the data-center and AI business grew 78%.
The trouble was everything around those numbers:
- Q4 revenue guidance of $15–16 billion missed Wall Street’s hopes by more than $1 billion.
- Higher memory prices are squeezing PC demand.
- Shortages of key components stopped Intel from filling some server-chip orders.
- Expanding factory capacity is expensive, and Intel said it doesn’t expect positive cash flow this year.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan insisted CPU demand remains strong despite near-term pain in the PC market. Investors didn’t buy it that day. AMD slid 10.9%, Nvidia lost 4.2%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 8.2%, which TheStreet estimates erased around $1 trillion in chip market value in one session.
Intel and Nvidia don’t have the same problems. But the selloff showed a shared fear: strong demand alone no longer protects a chip stock if investors doubt profits or the cost of growth.
Why is a bullish analyst cutting his target by 25%?
Because the risk he’s watching isn’t about whether people want Nvidia’s chips. It’s about who pays for them.
Melius argues that at least five companies worth more than $1 trillion each may have to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds and new shares to fund their AI build-outs. In the firm’s own words:
The logic is simple enough. When that much debt and equity hits the market, investors have more places to put their money, borrowing gets pricier, and shareholders become less willing to pay a premium for future chip profits. Nvidia could post excellent results and still see its valuation multiple shrink.
The numbers behind the worry are not small. Goldman Sachs estimated close to $500 billion in AI-related debt issuance by early August, and Reuters reported that Nvidia-backed CoreWeave had piled up about $50 billion in debt while expanding data centers. Melius also expects financing guarantees and other backstops to remain part of the build-out through 2028, so this isn’t a one-quarter problem.
One more detail worth knowing: Nvidia wasn’t singled out. The same note also trimmed targets on AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Dell, Qualcomm and CoreWeave. This is a sector call, not a verdict on Jensen Huang’s company.
My take: the story is the funding, not the chips
I’ve covered earnings seasons long enough to distrust headlines that scream “target slashed.” Read the number alone and you’d think the bull case collapsed. Read the reasoning and you’ll see an analyst who still believes in the demand but is nervous about the bill.
That’s a harder risk to track than a missed quarter. You can’t see it in a single earnings line. It shows up slowly, in bond spreads, share offerings and the terms customers accept to keep ordering. If I were watching this stock, that’s where I’d look first.
Can Nvidia’s growth and its falling stock both be true?
Yes, and that gap is the whole story right now. Nvidia’s revenue jumped 106% in its latest reported quarter, yet the shares are well off their highs. Huang has said demand is still accelerating, and when Reitzes asked on the August call whether self-improving AI would push demand even higher, Huang’s answer was that it would inflect further.
The market, though, is asking a different question. It’s no longer “will customers keep buying?” but “can customers keep paying?”
What should investors watch on November 17?
Nvidia reports third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on November 17, with management guiding to roughly $108 billion in quarterly revenue. Beating that number is the easy part. Based on this week’s mood, these will matter more:
- Margins: whether pricing power is holding as volumes grow.
- Order visibility: how firm the multi-year demand pipeline looks.
- Customer financing: any comment on how buyers are funding purchases.
- Peers’ reaction: whether AMD, Broadcom and others move with it, as they did on October 30.
Nvidia has a long habit of beating forecasts and then trading down anyway, so don’t be shocked by a messy reaction either way.
Frequently asked questions
What is Nvidia’s new price target from Melius Research?
Analyst Ben Reitzes cut the target to $315 from $420 on November 2, 2026, and kept a Buy rating.
Why did Intel stock crash on October 30?
It fell about 29% after earnings. Q3 results were solid, but the Q4 revenue forecast missed expectations by over $1 billion, supply and memory-price problems hurt demand, and Intel warned that cash flow won’t turn positive this year.
Is Nvidia stock a buy after the target cut?
Reitzes still says yes, and $315 implies about 52% upside from the November 3 close of $206.69. That’s one analyst’s opinion, not advice. Targets are often wrong, so think about your own risk first.
When is Nvidia’s next earnings report?
November 17, 2026, with guidance of about $108 billion in quarterly revenue.
What is the biggest risk Melius sees for AI chip stocks?
Financing. If giant AI spenders issue hundreds of billions in bonds and shares, borrowing costs could rise and investors may pay lower multiples for chip earnings.
The bottom line
One five-star analyst cutting a target by a quarter and still saying Buy is a useful signal, just not the one the headline suggests. The chips are selling. The open question is whether the money behind the orders holds up. Intel’s crash was a reminder that markets punish doubt fast, even when the quarter looks fine. All eyes now go to November 17.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and news purposes only and is not investment advice. Analyst targets are opinions and can be wrong. Please do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before buying or selling any stock.
Sources: TheStreet · CNBC · Intel Q3 2026 results · Reuters